This paper aims to explore the predictive accuracy of pre-electoral polls. We analyse the statistical issues concerning the accuracy of polls. Employing a new measure, poll accuracy is discussed to assess the relevance of the accuracy measure to multi-party elections. We focus on the last three Italian general elections and their outcomes in order to explore what empirical evidence they provide for the reliability and accuracy of Italian pre-electoral polls.
Polling and Multi-party Accuracy Measures: evidence from the Italian General Elections
TOMASELLI, Venera
2015-01-01
Abstract
This paper aims to explore the predictive accuracy of pre-electoral polls. We analyse the statistical issues concerning the accuracy of polls. Employing a new measure, poll accuracy is discussed to assess the relevance of the accuracy measure to multi-party elections. We focus on the last three Italian general elections and their outcomes in order to explore what empirical evidence they provide for the reliability and accuracy of Italian pre-electoral polls.File in questo prodotto:
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