ASSESSMENT OF THE FAILURE PROBABILITY OF UPGRADED RUBBLE-MOUND BREAKWATERS

Nowadays, the existence of a huge number of aging harbor defense structures and climate change-induced forcing variability highlight the need for a methodology able to deal with uncertainties which arise during the design of new and above all upgraded structures. In the present work, a probabilistic design methodology based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique for the assessment of the failure probability due to independent failure modes and on the factor of change method for the inclusion of the effects of climate change is described, together with its application to the emblematic case study of the Catania harbor breakwater (Italy). The performances of the rubble-mound breakwater under present and future climate scenarios are assessed considering the existing structure and different upgrading options, which include both the raising of the wave wall and the addition of extra armor blocks. Three novel indexes describing the acceptability level of the structure performances (𝑟) as well as the rate of growt