PERSPECTIVES FROM THE FIRST EARTHQUAKE RISK MODEL OF SWITZERLAND

Knowledge of seismic risk at national and sub-national level is crucial for designing appropriate actions and measures towards its mitigation. Herein, we present some insights from the first national earthquake risk model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), developed under the coordination of the Swiss Seismological Service. ERM-CH23 represents a significant advancement in our understanding of earthquake risk in Switzerland, as it leverages upon the latest science, updated datasets and local expertise. Among other highlights, the model boasts a new high-resolution site amplification model, an exposure model underpinned by an extensive geo-referenced database of building objects across the country, and a complex logic tree. Probabilistic risk analyses and individual earthquake scenario assessments were carried out in the open-source OpenQuake engine, developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) foundation. Several loss types are assessed, ranging from structural/nonstructural and contents economic loss to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population. Here, we provide a snapshot of the model components, details on the treatment of uncertainty, a discussion of several modeling choices, and some of the obtained results.