A Hybrid Simplified Approach for Cost Estimation in Construction Project Management

Accurate cost estimation is a critical success factor in construction project management, particularly in sectors where project approval and resource allocation depend on reliable forecasts. This paper presents a hybrid parametric model, designed to support project managers in the preliminary stages of project planning by providing reliable cost forecasts based on a combination of historical data, project-specific variables, and contextual factors. Validation was performed through real-world case studies from bank branch projects. The model's sector-specific calibration, based on eight years of historical data, ensures that it accurately reflects real-world cost drivers such as location, intervention type, and material cost trends. The validation demonstrates the model's effectiveness for standard-sized projects and highlights areas for further refinement. Validation was performed through five real-world case studies from bank branch projects. The approach offers a practical, scalable tool to support project managers in budgeting and decision-making, with potential for adaptation to other contexts and for digital integration in digital project management platforms. The model achieved an average prediction error band of ±7%, demonstrating its reliability for standard-sized projects.