Monitoring of a natural park through ESPI

The authors extend ESPI, Enviromentally Sensitive Patch Index, to the territories of Sicily's largest protected area, Nebrodi Park. ESPI allows to quantify the sensitivity of a territory to desertification by moving from MEDALUS protocol, MEditerranean Desertification Areas and Land USe. ESPI is applied to three scenarios - the first half and the second half of the 20th century, as well as a projection in the year 2030 and to the respective 3 Climatic Indexes. ESPI confirms expectations by allowing the authors to appreciate the extent of the response to land use changes and the incidence of the climatic component.