MONITORAGGIO, STIMA E PREVISIONE REAL-TIME DEL TRAFFICO VEICOLARE CON TECNOLOGIE ITS. IMPLEMENTAZIONE DI UN SISTEMA SPERIMENTATO NELL AREA URBANA DI CATANIA

First of all, the main focus of this study is the design and development (installation, implementation and calibration) of a traffic monitoring, estimating and short-term forecasting system, through the integration of real-time traffic data in a dynamic simulation model. The proposed methodology allows the identification of the conceptual model that represents the basis of the system's architecture, in order to define a set of required services, functional relationships and specific characteristics identified from the stakeholders needs, which will be involved by this system. The described methodology is applied to the urban area of Catania (Italy) through the implementation of a traffic monitoring, estimation and forecasting system, equipped with radar sensor and a central control station for traffic data elaborations. By using obtained data from the implemented simulation model, two further methodologies are presented in this thesis. The first methodology is based on the development of a detailed statistical analysis procedure for reliability assessment of data coming from traffic monitoring systems and simulation models. The second methodology develops a statistical approach for capturing the variability of travel time reliability (TTR) in an extended traffic network, incorporating travel time analysis in order to evaluate their variation and to define the workability of the transport network. To conclude, the final aim of this work is to increase the knowledge of the actual dynamic of road traffic in urban areas, to monitor the reliability of the transport system and to obtain useful data and information that can contribute to the implementation of an optimal control of mobility system, through a more efficient and integrated use of the road infrastructure and the available devices on it.