Labour-Force Renewal in Ageing Societies: Sub-national Evidence from Italy and Spain

Labour-force dynamics in Europe are shaped by heterogeneous interactions between ageing and mobility, which remain poorly documented at fine territorial scales. This study compares Italy and Spain, two ageing Southern European countries with strong internal divides, by decomposing provincial labour-force change into cohort turnover, internal migration, and international migration over 2011–2020. Using a DEGURBA-based and gender-disaggregated framework, results show that labour-force renewal depends less on cohort replacement than on territorially uneven mobility regimes. Italy combines comparatively lower cohort turnover with a persistently high migration share of turnover, with limited urban–rural differentiation and slightly higher values among women. Spain displays higher cohort turnover, stronger gender gradients, and a more polarised migration contribution concentrated in urban provinces. In 2020, both countries show a contraction of turnover and migration consistent with COVID-19 mobility disruptions. These findings challenge convergence-oriented interpretations of demographic change at the national scale and highlight the need for territorially and gender-sensitive labour and migration policies.