Mediterranean Agricultural Product Trade between the EU and Morocco in the Perspective of the New Bilateral Agreement: Main Causes of Imbalance and Possible Effects

In this article the possible repercussions of the new bilateral trade agreement proposed to enter into force between Morocco and the European Union concerning the fruit & vegetable sector have been examined. Through appropriate mathematical indices, such as the “revealed comparative advantage” (RCA) approach pioneered by Balassa, the competitive position of Morocco over its trading partners in the EU and especially over the Mediterranean Member States has been evaluated. The aim is to discover features of trade of Morocco and the EU in the fruit and vegetable sector, and changes during the period 2000 - 2010. In particular, the effects of the new bilateral trade agreement on EU countries such as Italy, Spain and France, i.e., the traditional producers of these goods, have been examined. RCA of Morocco over the EU and RCA of the EU over Morocco have been calculated by conducting research using UN Comtrade sources. Moreover, through the “revealed trade advantage” (RTA) introduced by Vollrath, the global competitiveness of the fruit and vegetable sectors in both Morocco and the EU have been evaluated. Finally, the degree of intra-industry trade between Morocco and the major European producers of fruit and vegetables has been calculated. The results highlight the strong dominance of Morocco, and point to the possibility that the new bilateral trade agreement may cause an increase in economic instability in many European areas struggling against Moroccan competition in certain agricultural sectors. In countering this situation, questions concerning agri-food safety, agri-environmental protection and other aspects can become relevant in the near future. The importance of these questions is due to their pointing to the comparative low levels of restrictions often faced by the Moroccan producers as the real cause of their actual competitive advantage in some strategic European agri-food sectors. Despite the limitations of RCA indices obtained in this study, they are expected to offer further insight into the competitiveness of the Moroccan fruit & vegetable sector and its implications for trade with the EU in the near future.