In this paper, we consider the meta-analysis approach as a special case ofmultilevel modelling in order to identify the potential sources of dissimilarities amongpre-election poll accuracy measures. The predictive accuracy measure is computed tocompare the pre-electoral poll result to the actual result. It is introduced in ahierarchical model as a dependent variable and the poll characteristics as explanatoryvariables. In the model each outcome is affected by a specific sampling error assumedto have a normal distribution and a known variance. Employing such a multilevelapproach, we conduct a meta-analysis of pre-election poll accuracy measures inParliamentary elections in Italy from 2001 to 2008.

Multilevel models in meta-analysis of pre-election poll accuracy measures

D'AGATA, ROSARIO GIUSEPPE;TOMASELLI, Venera
2013-01-01

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the meta-analysis approach as a special case ofmultilevel modelling in order to identify the potential sources of dissimilarities amongpre-election poll accuracy measures. The predictive accuracy measure is computed tocompare the pre-electoral poll result to the actual result. It is introduced in ahierarchical model as a dependent variable and the poll characteristics as explanatoryvariables. In the model each outcome is affected by a specific sampling error assumedto have a normal distribution and a known variance. Employing such a multilevelapproach, we conduct a meta-analysis of pre-election poll accuracy measures inParliamentary elections in Italy from 2001 to 2008.
2013
Meta-analysis, Multilevel models, Accuracy measure
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11769/14755
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