Prospective validation of a risk score based on biological markers for predicting progression free survival in Binet stage A chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients: results of the multicenter O-CLL1-GISL study

A risk score based on three biological features (CD38, ZAP-70, and IGHV mutational status) was previously developed to predict progression-free survival (PFS) in untreated Binet A CLL patients. Here we perform a score validation analysis in a prospective and independent cohort of patients. Biological markers (CD38, ZAP-70, and IGHV mutational status) and gene expression profiles (GEP) of leukemic cells from CLL patients included in a prospective multicenter observational study (O-CLL1-GISL protocol, clinicaltrial.gov ID:NCT00917549) were used to assess the value and reproducibility of this score. To date, 468 Binet A patients were classified as low- (0 positive marker), intermediate- (1 positive marker), or high-risk (2 or 3 positive markers) using the progression risk score. The 3-year PFS probability was 91.7%, 82.9%, and 57.4% for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk (P<0.0001) cases, respectively. These values were similar to those found in the original cohort. At Cox multivariate analysis, Rai stage, absolute lymphocyte count, progression risk score, and β-2 microglobulin maintained an independent prognostic impact on PFS. This score remained a predictor of progression when analysis was limited to 371 Rai 0 cases (P<0.0001). Finally, the cells from the different CLL risk groups showed differences in their gene expression patterns. These results confirm the ability of this progression risk score to predict PFS among Binet A patients. The utility of the score was also extended by demonstrating that it retains prognostic value when applied exclusively to Rai 0 patients. Specific transcriptional patterns were significantly associated with risk groups.