The highly debated seismogenic source of the 1693 eastern Sicily earthquake: some constrains from macroseismic field simulations

We investigate the likely source for the 1693, January 11 earthquake by applying an original simulation procedure to a large number of seismogenic models proposed in the literature and considering different geometries, kinematics and magnitudes. The results are preliminary, but allow us to reduce to three the number of best analytical solutions: the NNW-SSE striking Scicli-Ragusa fault assuming a M w = 7.4, a very large portion of the Ionian subduction plane, assuming an unrealistic M w = 8, the Etna E-W segment of the northward-dipping Sicilian Basal Thrust, assuming a more realistic M w = 7.1.