Building scenarios: a qualitative approach to forecasting market developments for ornamental plants

In order to highlight some of peculiarities of mechanisms anddynamics of the ornamental plant market this paper presents the first use of theDelphi method for a scenario analysis of ornamental plant production. Thepresent study aims to forecast the evolution and expansion of the ornamentalplant market and to identify future scenarios for the development of Italiancompanies involved in the ornamental pot plant industry. The results of thesurvey highlight a considerable agreement among experts that production andtrade in the near future will remain fairly stable. Despite the increased interestof new and emerging markets in ornamental plants, not all producers willbenefit from this development. Our findings predict a reduction in the incomeof Italian ornamental plant producers due to decreased prices, accompanied bya progressive exit from the market of small- and medium-sized enterprisesunable to adequately innovate and adopt the optimal supply chain strategiesrequired by current markets.