Assessing the hidden impacts of hypothetical eruption events at Mount Etna

We estimate how the value and the spatial distribution of carbon storage, water yield and wild pollination services are expected to change with potential expansion of lava flow inundation at Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy). We rely on a hazard map lava by flow inundation to simulate a set of three future land use/land cover (LU/LC) scenarios related to different hazard levels with a specific probability of occurrence. Our assessment used the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) tool and GIS spatial analysis and indicates that changes in the delivery of all three ecosystem services are biophysically and economically sizeable. The variation between scenarios demonstrates that the carbon storage and wild pollination services will decrease because of the loss of woods and natural habitats. In contrast, the water yield capacity will increase for the creation of new naked land surfaces characterised by high permeability values. In the worst-case scenario, we estimate a loss of 17% and 10% for carbon storage and wild pollination services respectively, and an increase of approximately 10% for water yield.