Indicatori di carico demografico ed invecchiamento della popolazione

As in most areas of the developed world, the declines observed in fertility and mortality in Italy will inevitably speed up the aging process. The social burden of the elder population is increasing, and this because the elderly people’s support in Italy - pension, health care and social services - is still provided by the government. This study examines variations in the current levels of old-age dependency among the Italian Regions, as well, presents projections in demographic trends. The results reveal that the Southern Regions currently have better dependency ratios, though they have also higher pension-to-worker ratios (due to lower employment ratios). According to current population projections, mainly due to both lower fertility rates and lower foreign immigrations, dependency ratios of the Southern Regions are expected to catch-up the ones of the Northern Regions by 2030, and definitely surpass them by 2051. The current trend looks unsustainable in the long-period, so policy-options directed to increase fertility and immigration appear both quite urgent.