Climate change is now evident on a global scale. In some regions the phenomenon is further amplified, generating different consequences for man and the environment. Sicily is one of the Mediterranean regions, the biggest in the area, where climatic variations produce significant effects. In this study, temperature trends on monthly time scales are examined in the time frame 1925-2015.\\ The cluster analysis technique (Ward’s method) was used to homogenize the temperature series. The results show 4 statistically significant clusters confirming the presence of climatic variability in the region- The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to determine temperature trends. The non-parametric estimator Sen's slope is used to quantify the variation of trends. The results showed the presence of statistically significant trends.\\ Aworrying and unexpected increase in temperatures was found during the winter period. This scenario was presented in 3 clusters, highlighting a mutation in the winter season, attributable to the climatic changes in progress rather than to territorial factors.\\ Significant, but expected, is the trend towards an increase in temperatures that occurs during the summer, with the exception of only onestatistically significant cluster in which there is a decreasing trend. If the trends maintain an increasing monotone character, in the coming decades there will be, in many areas of Sicily region, a constant loss of fertile soil for the agricultural sector and the advancement of phenomena such as drought and desertification to which the island is already predisposed.\\ All of this would have serious socio-economic repercussions. Considering that a large part of the region's economy is based on the agricultural sector, these repercussions will be followed by serious environmental implications that will negatively affect the ecological sustainability of the region.

Temperature Trend Analysis and Investigation on a Case of Variability Climate

Pietro Monforte
Conceptualization
;
Maria Alessandra Ragusa
Conceptualization
2022

Abstract

Climate change is now evident on a global scale. In some regions the phenomenon is further amplified, generating different consequences for man and the environment. Sicily is one of the Mediterranean regions, the biggest in the area, where climatic variations produce significant effects. In this study, temperature trends on monthly time scales are examined in the time frame 1925-2015.\\ The cluster analysis technique (Ward’s method) was used to homogenize the temperature series. The results show 4 statistically significant clusters confirming the presence of climatic variability in the region- The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to determine temperature trends. The non-parametric estimator Sen's slope is used to quantify the variation of trends. The results showed the presence of statistically significant trends.\\ Aworrying and unexpected increase in temperatures was found during the winter period. This scenario was presented in 3 clusters, highlighting a mutation in the winter season, attributable to the climatic changes in progress rather than to territorial factors.\\ Significant, but expected, is the trend towards an increase in temperatures that occurs during the summer, with the exception of only onestatistically significant cluster in which there is a decreasing trend. If the trends maintain an increasing monotone character, in the coming decades there will be, in many areas of Sicily region, a constant loss of fertile soil for the agricultural sector and the advancement of phenomena such as drought and desertification to which the island is already predisposed.\\ All of this would have serious socio-economic repercussions. Considering that a large part of the region's economy is based on the agricultural sector, these repercussions will be followed by serious environmental implications that will negatively affect the ecological sustainability of the region.
Mathematical models; Applied Science; Mathematics; Temperature trend; Climate variability; Non-parametric tests; Hierarchical clustering; Mediterranean region; Calculus.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11769/531797
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