Valutazione e previsione. Riflessioni ex-post su alcune ricerche delphi

Assessment and prediction. A posteriori reflections on some Delphi research projects - Predictive analysis is proving increasingly important to applied social research carried out for the public, private and mixed sectors. Though asserting its pragmatic value as an assessment and planning tool, however, predictive analysis provides little critical access with regard to its techniques, its finalising capacity and the validity and reliability of its research results. This short paper attempts to provide a posteriori evaluation of about ten Delphi projects carried out between 2002 and 2006, focusing on a time-frame now partially elapsed.