Analysis of risk factors for late arteriovenous fistula failure and patency rates after angioplasty in hemodialysis patients: a retrospective cohort study

Background: The incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is increasing worldwide. Hemodialysis (HD) is the mainstay of renal replacement therapy for patients with ESKD. Risk factors associated with late arteriovenous fistula (AVF) failure in HD patients are poorly investigated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify factors associated with late AVF failure in HD patients. Methods: Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) who underwent forearm or upper arm AVF angioplasty at Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between September 2009 and August 2018 were included. Patients were followed up for 36 months. Baseline characteristics were collected using electronic medical records (EMRs). Variables associated with late AVF failure were identified using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: There were 137 patients (64% male, 36% female) included in this study, with 50 (36.5%) experiencing AVF failure. Univariable log-rank analysis showed that age, C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH), albumin (ALB), and AVF patency rate were significantly different between patients who did and did not experience AVF failure. Cox regression analysis showed that CRP [P=0.002, hazard ratio (HR) =2.719, 95% confidence interval (CI) for HR: 1.432-5.164], ESR (P=0.030, HR =2.431, 95% CI: 1.088-5.434), iPTH (P=0.013, HR =0.325, 95% CI: 0.133-0.793), and ALB (P=0.040, HR =0.539, 95% CI: 0.299-0.972) were independently associated with AVF failure. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative patency rates of AVF at 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months were 84%, 74%, 69%, 64%, 64%, and 64%, respectively. Conclusions: CRP, ESR, iPTH, and ALB were associated with AVF failure and should be used as reference in clinical practice.