Multistep procedure for estimating non-linear soil response in low seismicity areas—a case study of Lucerne, Switzerland

The impact of non-linear soil behaviour on seismic hazard in low-to-moderate seismicity areas is often neglected; however, it may become relevant for long return periods. In this study, we used fully non-linear 1-D simulations to estimate the site-specific non-linear soil response in the low seismicity area, using the city of Lucerne in Switzerland as an example. The constitutive model considers the development of pore pressure excess and requires calibration of complex soil models, including the soil dilatancy parameters. In the absence of laboratory measurements, we mainly used the cone penetration test data to estimate the model variables and perform inversion for the dilatancy parameters. Our findings, using Swiss building code-compatible input ground motions, suggest a high probability of strong non-linear behaviour and the possibility of liquefaction at high ground motion levels in the case study area. While the non-linearity observations from strong-motion recordings are not available in Lucerne, the comparison with empirical data from other sites and other methods shows similarity with our predictions. Moreover, we show that the site response modelled is largely influenced by the strong pore pressure effects produced in thin sandy water-saturated layers. In addition, we demonstrate that the variability of the results due to the input motion and the soil parameters is significant, but within reasonable bounds.