Intrapopulation germinability may help the Mediterranean plant species Poterium spinosum L. to cope with climate changes and landscape fragmentation

Poterium spinosum L. is a key plant species forming typical shrub communities, distributed across the Mediterranean eastern coasts. The conservation of P. spinosum is thus of the utmost importance, especially due to the ever-increasing environmental pressures like climate changes and habitat fragmentation. This study, in particular, investigated for the first time the germination variability of P. spinosum at intrapopulation level, by analysing the germination behavior of five different subpopulations growing along the coasts of Sicily. For a more exhaustive picture of the main drivers of biodiversity loss affecting the distributional area of P. spinosum, the trends of climate and land-cover changes were also studied over the periods 1931–2020 and 1958–2018, respectively. The results found significant intrapopulation variability in P. spinosum, whose germination parameters showed that fruits and seeds from distinct subpopulations respond differently to diverse temperatures. Seeds showed generally higher values of final germination percentage (FGP) compared to fruits, and at higher temperatures: the highest FGP in seeds was 70% at 20 °C, whereas in fruits was 58.2% at 15 °C. The environmental threats showed worrying trends across the study area: during 1931–2020, the average temperature increased by 1.5 °C, whereas the average rainfall declined from 710 to 650 mm. Similarly, in the period 1958–2018, the analysis of the CORINE land-cover changes showed a highly fragmented agricultural landscape, where natural areas were reduced to 2.5–5.0%. Germination variability at intrapopulation level should be considered as a fundamental adaptation strategy, which can increase the reproductive success of P. spinosum under climate and land-cover changes.