The 2019 Eruptive Activity at Stromboli Volcano: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Reveal Hidden Features of the “Unexpected” 3 July Paroxysm

In July and August 2019, Stromboli volcano underwent two dangerous paroxysms previously considered “unexpected” because of the absence of significant changes in usually monitored parameters. We applied a multidisciplinary approach to search for signals able to indicate the possibility of larger explosive activity and to devise a model to explain the observed variations. We analysed geodetic data, satellite thermal data, images from remote cameras and seismic data in a timespan crossing the eruptive period of 2019 to identify precursors of the two paroxysms on a medium-term time span (months) and to perform an in-depth analysis of the signals recorded on a short time scale (hours, minutes) before the paroxysm. We developed a model that explains the observations. We call the model “push and go” where the uppermost feeding system of Stromboli is made up of a lower section occupied by a low viscosity, low density magma that is largely composed of gases and a shallower section occupied by the accumulated melt. We hypothesize that the paroxysms are triggered when an overpressure in the lower section is built up; the explosion will occur at the very moment such overpressure overcomes the confining pressure of the highly viscous magma above it.