Regenerative agriculture meets the Carbon Market: exploring economic potential in Mediterranean orange groves

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has been identified by the European Commission as a key strategy to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Through the Carbon Market, it can be monetized by trading carbon credits to offset emissions from anthropogenic activities. Citrus groves offer potential in this area through the adoption of regenerative agriculture practices. However, despite Europe's ambitious climate targets, the existing literature reveals a gap concerning the economic viability of carbon markets for citrus growers. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of conventional and regenerative blood orange farms in Italy, assessing three scenarios: the business-as-usual condition, participation in the Voluntary Carbon Market, and a hypothetical scenario involving the agricultural sector's inclusion in the Compliance Carbon Market. The results indicate that regenerative orange groves are less profitable than conventional ones across all scenarios analyzed. While carbon markets are a promising tool for climate change mitigation, they present significant entry barriers for small and medium-sized farms and therefore require adaptation to the structural characteristics of Southern European agriculture. Additionally, low-carbon agricultural products merit greater policy attention, particularly through the recognition of premium prices that reward farmers for their environmental stewardship.