Migration mood and policy responsiveness: a structural analysis of public opinion, policy, and migration flows in Italy (1990–2020)

This study analyses the structural relationships between immigration flows, public opinion, and migration policy in Italy over three decades (1990–2020), with particular attention to the 2015–2018 migration crisis. We theorise a system of interconnected responsiveness and feedback among migration levels, public mood, salience, and policy, and test it using structural equation modelling and a unique longitudinal dataset combining official indicators of flows, survey-based mood indices, and a composite measure of policy openness. Over the long term, the system reveals patterns of public and policy responsiveness consistent with a thermostatic dynamic. During the crisis, however, this equilibrium breaks down: policy becomes unresponsive to public mood and instead reacts sharply to concerns and, partly, to migration pressures. At the same time, mood moves in the same direction as policy, indicating reinforcement rather than counterbalance. These results suggest that under crisis conditions, migration policy may become directly exposed to politicisation, and the public thermostat ceases to operate.