The migrant-native ‘equilibrium’ in Western European labour markets: a long-term analysis

Research on the migrant penalty in European labour markets reveals a significant gap between migrants and natives across various outcomes, which appears to be linked to specific features of the labour market structure. As the proportion of low-status jobs increases at the regional level, a trade-off ‘equilibrium’ emerges between migrants’ likelihood of being employed and the quality of the jobs they hold, compared to natives. This study aims to explore whether the Great Recession has altered this migrant-native equilibrium. To address this, we analyze EU-LFS data from 13 countries and 140 European regions, examining three distinct periods: pre-crisis, during the crisis, and post-crisis. Our findings indicate that during the economic downturn, this equilibrium shifted, weakening the trade-off between employment probability and job quality. Furthermore, the shift continued in the post-crisis phase, suggesting that the Great Recession may have triggered a structural transformation of the migrant-native equilibrium in European labour markets, rather than just a temporary adjustment.