Citrus Orchard Abandonment Reduces the Economic Value of Carbon Sequestration in a Mediterranean Climate: An Economic Assessment Using the InVEST Model

Citrus orchards provide essential ecosystem services and mitigate atmospheric CO2 through carbon sequestration, but increasing abandonment in the Mediterranean, which is expected to intensify in coming decades, threatens ecosystem services, food security, and climate regulation by raising atmospheric CO2 concentration levels. This study aims to quantify the economic value of carbon sequestration associated with the abandonment of citrus orchards in the Mediterranean region. The InVEST model was applied to estimate the economic value of carbon sequestration in abandoned citrus orchards in Lentini from 2018 to 2030. Citrus orchard abandonment results in an average loss of 4.4 Mg C ha−1 in carbon storage and 3.6 Mg C ha−1 in carbon sequestration over time. The economic assessment of carbon sequestration under abandonment conditions indicates average economic losses ranging from −89.3 to −393.0 EUR ha−1 and from −268.0 to −1179.1 EUR per microfarm as social carbon prices increase from EUR 25 to EUR 110. Severe orchard abandonment, affecting up to 50% (≈118 microfarms) and 75% (≈177 microfarms) of the total area, would generate substantial economic losses in carbon sequestration, amounting to −0.9 × 105 EUR ha−1 and −1.3 × 105 EUR ha−1, respectively. Citrus orchard abandonment reduces carbon sequestration, causing economic losses and weakening climate mitigation.