Affective polarization and electoral turnout: testing the moderating role of political sophistication on the Italian case

ffective polarization (AP) has recently emerged as a pivotal phenomenon in global politics. While most studies highlight its negative consequences for democratic quality, recent studies have explored its potential positive effects in terms of increasing citizens’ mobilization. However, while evidence generally shows a positive correlation between AP and political participation, little is known about how AP affects diverse groups of citizens. Drawing on research into party/ideological polarization, we identify political sophistication as a key moderator of the AP–turnout relationship. The article’s rationale rests on three pillars: a significant gap in the literature, inconsistent findings in the scarce existing studies, and the context-dependence of AP’s effects. Using an original survey conducted during Italy’s 2024 European Parliament elections, we applied multivariate analysis to fill this gap. Our study shows how the positive impact of AP on aggregated electoral turnout depends largely on the greater mobilization of less sophisticated voters, which helps reduce participation inequality. Hence, our findings provide valuable insights into the relationship between AP and the quality of democracy. While AP increases turnout, contributing to the overall legitimacy of democratic systems, it may still generate critical challenges for contemporary democracies.